Business/Technology Reporter
Quick links: Job projections for 2025 | Colorado has 5 minimum wages | Work-related death stats | Take the reader poll
When Phyllis Resnick published the latest last month, it projected Colorado will return to a more stable period of economic growth in 2025. But she knew the model had some political uncertainty because it included data through the end of October.
Now that a new president has been picked, though, she’s less certain of what the new year will bring as blanket tariffs, mass deportations and federal spending cuts are part of the Trump administration’s agenda.
🎧 Listen here!
Go deeper into this story in this episode of The Daily Sun-Up podcast.
Subscribe: | |
“We’ve traded political uncertainty for policy uncertainty,” said Resnick, lead economist and executive director for the Colorado Futures Center at Colorado State University. “If, in fact, everything’s enacted the way it’s being discussed, I think it brings a lot of risk back into the national and therefore the Colorado economy.”
What’s Working asked local economists to share their predictions for the Colorado economy in 2025 and any impact on their own lives. Intertwined with local projections is the unknown of what President-elect Donald Trump will do after he is inaugurated. Trump double-digit tariffs on most imports and the mass deportations of people illegally in the U.S.
Those two policies “could possibly cause inflation and prices to rise again,” said Ryan Gedney, the Denver economist who shares his insight as . But there’s also the that was grocery prices before Christmas. And there’s by the Federal Reserve on how fast to lower interest rates as out — as well as concern that .
“I think that will be a more difficult path to predict this year than in 2024,” Gedney said, adding that “Federal Reserve independence is another related item to watch throughout the year.”
Forecasts haven’t changed economists’ spending
But that hasn’t changed his personal budget, at least not yet. Gedney said he’s “had conversations about making certain purchases sooner than later based on assumptions, but haven’t taken any action yet.”
Neither has Resnick (“I’m not going to throw away a perfectly good dishwasher,” she said). But a friend just bought a new car “because she was concerned that if she waited until the tariffs kick in that it would be significantly more expensive.”
While tariffs on foreign goods could help certain U.S. manufacturers better compete, many because of them and cause retaliatory tariffs. Tariffs are also the , polls show.
Immigration crackdowns could constrain the labor market for industries like construction, agriculture and hospitality, leading to employers raising wages to attract workers. Good for workers but that can be another contributor to higher inflation.
Most economists think U.S. inflation will reach 2% at the end of 2025 (it was ). But Gary Horvath, a Broomfield economist at , isn’t so sure.
“I appreciate their optimism. Inflation has been consistently stubborn,” Horvath said in an email. “Probably the biggest factor is the continued effect of accumulated inflation on lower wage earners.”
The income disparity may be more troubling than people realize. And Colorado is going to be stuck this year trying to figure out how to fund programs that benefited from federal relief during the pandemic.
“The Colorado legislature has its hands full. They have to cut $700 million to $1 billion out of the budget,” Horvath said. “Areas least likely to be cut are Medicaid, programs for the underserved, and education. … The legislature will not be able to raise fees and taxes to reduce the shortfall significantly. They will have to cut spending.”
He doubts he’ll buy anything before a new Trump policy goes into effect. But, Horvath added, “If we purchase a major appliance, it will be because one broke down. If we need a vehicle, there is a 50/50 chance we will shop for a used one.”
Bill Craighead, program director at the UCCS Economic Forum in Colorado Springs, said he’s been thinking about whether it’s time to replace his computer “but I haven’t pushed the button on a purchase yet.”
Certain about uncertainty
Craighead benefits from living in the Pikes Peak region, which has really built up a strong cluster of economic development activity linked to defense that “is somewhat insulated from the ups and downs of the economy,” he said. The higher-skilled defense jobs come with higher pay that has nudged worker income and education levels higher.
“But it does mean we face some risk if decisions were made in Washington that are unfavorable to the region,” he said.
Trump has said he’ll reverse President Joe Biden’s decision to put the U.S. Space Force permanently in Colorado Springs, though the largely Republican region has pushed back.
Whatever bright or bleak forecasts are being made, Craighead said it’s not that economists are unduly pessimistic. It’s the uncertainty, he said.
“In general, I feel like people have a very exaggerated idea of how much the president matters for the economy, but with the incoming administration there are some potentially significant disruptions around tariffs and immigration if they fully carry through with campaign rhetoric,” he said. “It seems like many forecasters and financial markets are expecting something milder in practice, but we really won’t know for sure until we see what happens.”
➔ As for jobs? Gedney, who previously worked in Colorado’s labor department, said the state’s gradual unemployment rate increase last year — from 3.3% in November 2023 to 4.3% a year later — “is moving in the wrong direction.” While close to the U.S. rate and below the state’s historical average, the increase “is strikingly similar to the state’s rise in joblessness in 2001 and 2008,” he said.
He’s also wary of the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspending Colorado’s job data as it investigates data issues caused by the state’s tech upgrade of its unemployment system. State officials say the data has improved. But the hold has made it “extremely difficult (if not impossible) to gauge the health of the state’s labor market going forward,” Gedney said.
➔ ICYMI: Colorado leaders and economists already shared a peek into state’s 2025 economy during the Colorado Business Economic Outlook hosted by the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder >> Read earlier Sun story, see
Colorado’s now has 5 minimum wages
On New Year’s Day, the city of Boulder became the fourth Colorado municipality to set a minimum wage separate from the state’s.
Boulder’s minimum jumped 8% overnight to $15.57 an hour, and because the city is trying to improve workers’ livelihoods, especially for its lowest earners, City Council has two more years of 8% annual increases, according to approved Nov. 7.
The city had joined a ago to consider adopting a local minimum, much like neighbor Denver, which jumped on the opportunity as soon as the to do so themselves in 2020. Last year, Boulder County, also part of the regional effort, boosted its wage, which increased to $16.57 on Wednesday.
But four other cities — Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Longmont — that participated in the regional study have not yet decided to move ahead. That could still happen but nothing could take effect until the first day of 2026, as directed by the law. Business concerns have been about increases and the burden on small businesses.
State law limits local governments to annual hourly minimum wage increases of $1.75 or 15%, whichever is higher. The hourly minimum wage in Denver and Colorado are pegged to the change in Denver-area Consumer Price Index and increased about 2.7% this year to $18.81 in Denver and $14.81 in Colorado.
As seen in the chart below, the local governments of Boulder, Boulder County and Edgewater, which adopted its own minimum in 2024, have also set their new minimum wages for the next several years before they default to annual increases based on CPI.
More new rules for 2025
➔ Paid family leave for self employed. While self-employed workers have been eligible paid-leave program, on annual quarterly earnings instead of estimated earnings. Also, coverage begins when a worker registers (there’s no open enrollment) and tax documents must be submitted annually or there could be fines. >>
Got some economic news or business bits Coloradans should know? Tell us:
Take the poll: Welcome (or not) 2025!
Click the survey above or this link ➔
Sun economy stories you may have missed
➔ Ski patrol strike disrupting holiday week at Park City may set tone for union talks ahead in Colorado. Park City Mountain Resort owner Vail Resorts has been sending non-union managers to mind the Utah mountain. >> Read story
➔ Ranchers hit Colorado Parks and Wildlife with $580,000 in compensation claims for livestock impacted by wolves. If approved, the claims would deplete the Wolf Depredation Compensation Fund and force the agency to dip into the state’s general fund. >> Read story
➔ Colorado’s job-growth incentive had lackluster 2024. Approved projects dropped by 34%, and the value of tax credits awarded and promised jobs fell by more than 70% from a year ago. >> Read story
➔ Corey Hutchins’ year in review: The news behind the news in Colorado’s media world in 2024. Rural newspapers and radio stations closed and lawmakers made state government less transparent. >> Read story
➔ “Wealth begets wealth”: Denver nonprofit combats racial disparities through homeownership. Since 2021, the Dearfield Fund has provided downpayment assistance to help Black first-time homeowners purchase 219 homes. >> Read story
Support The Sun: Forward this to a friend Or if you’re not already, become a member!
Other working bits
➔ Colorado had 83 work-related deaths in 2023. That’s down 6.7% from 2022, according to the latest Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries program from the state Department of Labor and Employment’s Office of Labor Market Information. Transportation incidents were the leading cause of death, increasing by two to 35 in 2023. Falls, slips and trips were the second leading cause, numbering 16. Fatalities due to violence and other injuries by a person or animal fell 22.2% to 14 deaths. >> See
Happy 2025, everyone! What’s on your mind? Share your 2 cents on how the economy is keeping you down or helping you up at . ~ tamara
Miss a column? Catch up:
What’s Working is a Colorado Sun column about surviving in today’s economy. Email tamara@coloradosun.com with stories, tips or questions. Read the archive, ask a question at and don’t miss the next one by signing up at .
Support this free newsletter and become a Colorado Sun member: coloradosun.com/join
ֱ is part of . Read our policies.
Corrections & Clarifications
Notice something wrong? ֱ has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.